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May is Under Tremendous Pressure to Postpone Brexit



Evaluating the exit process of UK from European Union Head of the Department of International Relations (English) at Nişantaşı University Academic member Dr Fatma Özkurt, said that "May is under great pressure to postpone the exit from the EU.

In the UK Parliament, the country's separation process (Brexit) from the European Union (EU) on January 29 announced that a new vote will be held. Nişantaşı University Head of Department of International Relations (English) Faculty Dr Fatma Zeynep Özkurt evaluated the Brexit process and its impact on Europe.

She said that Britain, following a different integration model from the EU and other member states, did not want to give up the national sovereignty rights, but also drew a profile of a country wishing to have a say in the future of Europe. Dr Fatma Zeynep Özkurt, "We see that the negotiation process has progressed very slowly and problematically and has caused political disintegration. The dynamics of the negotiation between the EU and the UK were mainly shaped by the UK's financial responsibilities with the other member states, issues such as the border and citizenship rights between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland before the decision to quit, Due to the problems of resolving these issues, it took a lot of time to address the issues of the trade agreement, which was very important for both sides. While EU stipulating that Britain should fulfil the commitment to Union’s budget for negotiations to continue, Britain alleged the financial obligations would depend on the nature of bilateral relations in the post-Brexit period.”

THE FUTURE OF BILATERAL RELATIONS IS UNCERTAIN

The refusal of Theresa May's Brexit agreement as a result of the parliamentary vote on 15 January 2019 leads to a re-discussion of the different scenarios on Brexit in both the UK and the EU. Hence after a difficult political negotiation with such a short time to leave the Union, this increase in the likelihood of the UK nonagreement leave the union inevitably increased the uncertainty about the future of bilateral relations, " said Dr Özkurt and continued:

"The only thing that is currently certain is the day on which the membership is automatically terminated. In the settlement-based scenario, Britain is expected to formally leave the EU at this date. If Theresa May’s Brexit agreement is not accepted, it is not clear what is going to happen. However, it is clear that May was under great pressure to postpone the exit from the EU.

“THE SECOND BREXIT MIGHT RESULT IN A REFERENDUM”

Dr Özkurt indicated that Brexit Agreement to be accepted until March 29 is considered to be impossible. "If the agreement is rejected, early elections are likely to come up, albeit low chances. On the other hand, there is a tendency towards a second Brexit referendum on condition that a majority is provided in the House of Commons, in case of the agreement to not to pass the Parliament. We can say that, in any case, the British public remains committed to fulfilling the decision in favour of Brexit of the first referendum, and for Brexit to take place on time, every possible scenario mentioned will be considered" she said.

"THE CANCELLATION OF THE BREXIT CAN ALSO BE SEEN AS A RESULT"

"It is possible to say that the developments in the UK, worries the union officials in the EU wing, which closely observes the situation.” Dr Özkurt finished her talk by saying:

"The European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, indicating that the current Brexit agreement is 'the best possible' and all the additional assurances presented to the UK is to show the EU's good intentions, the date set for the exit from membership is very soon so Britain should clarify their intentions as soon as possible. In addition, the possibility of postponing Article 50 seems to be the best chance for both parties as of now. It should be mentioned that EU might postpone 29 March under some conditions. It is possible to say that the current conditions for the EU are limited to the general elections or referendum and that a new negotiation is not an option. Even though not mentioned a lot, the cancellation of Brexit can also be seen as a result. However, this one has the lowest possibility between all other possibilities. Because member states such as Germany, Italy and France don’t lean towards this possibility.”

Release date: 18.01.2019